overconfidence-and-calibration
Most experts are overconfident in their predictions, expressing more certainty than their accuracy justifies. Proper calibration means that when you say something has a 70% chance of happening, it should occur approximately 70% of the time.
6 related concepts
Related ideas
Ideas connected to overconfidence-and-calibration.
Overconfidence is the most consequential bias — it makes you stop looking for evidence
Circle of CompetenceOperating outside your circle is what overconfidence looks like in practice
Forecasting AccuracyMost forecasters are poorly calibrated — they're more confident than they should be
Deliberate CalibrationCalibration is the practice of fixing overconfidence
FalsifiabilityOverconfident ideas are often unfalsifiable — nothing could prove them wrong
Mean ReversionPeople forget mean reversion because recent success makes them overconfident