prediction-versus-forecasting
Silver distinguishes between prediction (specific, often binary outcomes) and forecasting (probabilistic estimates with appropriate uncertainty). True forecasting acknowledges unknowns and expresses the likelihood of different scenarios.
6 related concepts
Related ideas
Ideas connected to prediction-versus-forecasting.
Forecasting Accuracy
Accuracy means different things for predictions (binary) vs. forecasts (probabilistic)
SuperforecastingSuperforecasters master the distinction — they forecast probabilistically, never predict binarily
Predictive AccuracyDifferent standards of accuracy apply to predictions vs. forecasts