Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Authors: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Published: 2015 Category: Decision Making, Forecasting, Psychology
Superforecasting presents the findings from Philip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project, a forecasting tournament sponsored by IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) where thousands of ordinary citizens competed to predict global events. The remarkable discovery was that a small group of participants—dubbed "superforecasters"—consistently outperformed professional intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
The book examines what makes these superforecasters special and how their methods can be learned. Tetlock found that superforecasting isn't about innate genius but rather about specific cognitive habits, attitudes, and practices. These include breaking problems into component parts, thinking probabilistically, updating beliefs incrementally as new evidence emerges, and maintaining intellectual humility.
Tetlock contrasts two cognitive styles: "hedgehogs" who view the world through a single big idea versus "foxes" who draw on multiple perspectives. Foxes consistently make better forecasters because they're more adaptable, self-critical, and comfortable with complexity.
The book argues that while prediction is difficult and no one can see perfectly into the future, forecasting skills can be systematically improved. By adopting superforecaster techniques, organizations and individuals can make better decisions under uncertainty and develop more accurate expectations about the future.
Tetlock demonstrates that good forecasting doesn't require special intelligence or insider information but rather a particular way of thinking: careful, open-minded, numerate, and self-critical. These skills can be cultivated through deliberate practice and proper training.